Grassfi re forecast at agricultural lands of the Jewish Autonomous Region

Аннотация

The method proposed for prediction of the grass fire ignition and development during spring-autumn fire period is based on the author’s probability model for prediction of wild fire ignition depending on natural and man-made conditions, and the Australian McArthur model for forecast of non-forest fire development. This method has been verified on fire data of 2015-2017 in the Jewish Autonomous Region. Calculations were done with the help of electronic maps of forest area quarters and the network of operational-territorial units (OTU) of the agricultural lands designed at 2.5 x 2.5 km cells. The Earth’s remote sensing data on non-forest fires in 2010-2014 and information on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during periods before and after growing season (April 23 – May 13, and September 24 – October 10) are used. The highest probability of the fi re effect on agricultural land is found at a distance of 3 km from the roads and 3-6 km from the urban areas. The spatial coincidence of OTU with real and predicted grassfires and the validity of the forecast in spring before growing season are considered to be satisfactory. The suggested method of predicting grassfire ignition and development has a considerable practical importance and can be applied in the development of fire-incident management strategies and measures to mitigate a threat to human and environmental health.